A Joint Probability Density Function for Reducing the Uncertainty of Marginal Social Cost of Carbon Evaluation in Transport Planning

This chapter aims at defining a fair value for the Marginal Social Cost of Carbon (MSCC) to be used within transport planning, briefly discussing how it is influenced by economic and scientific uncertainty, with the scope of helping researchers, stakeholders and decision makers to choose among the current range of values of four orders of magnitude provided from the scientific literature. The method here proposed estimates a joint probability density function for MSCC using a database of almost 600 available estimates, and then defines a subsample of 80 to be used for the evaluation of transport planning policies and projects, so that the variability of MSCC decreases significantly to a single order of magnitude.